Is a Recession on the Horizon? - Agri-Food Americas 2025 

Since commodities follow the macroeconomy, analyzing the broader economy, especially the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) – a timelier index than GDP, can help gauge the path ahead for commodity prices, Tom Bundgaard, Vice President, Forecasting , Expana, said at Agri-Food Americas in Chicago today.  

There is not only a correlation between PMI and commodity prices but there is also a lead lag between the two. The highs and lows in PMI come with a bit of a lead lag before we see similar peaks for commodity categories.  

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