Navigating the Trump Tariff Turbulence: A Comprehensive Timeline

US President Donald Trump and his administration have paused reciprocal tariffs on most countries.

“Based on the lack of respect that China has shown... I am hereby raising the [tariff] charged to China by the [USA] to 125%, effective immediately,” wrote Trump on Truth Social at 1:18 pm ET. 

It’s not clear if this 125% is in addition to the 20% imposed on Chinese imports to the US. In early March, Trump noted that he would add another 10% tariff on Chinese goods...

ANALYSIS: 2025 US Top Sirloin Butt Prices Climb 48% From January Lows

With grilling season approaching and tenderloins, ribeyes, and strips commanding elevated prices, many consumers are turning to more economical alternatives such as the boneless Choice top sirloin butt. Prices for this item are now at record highs for this time of year, currently sitting at $6.12/lb which shows a 35% increase over 2024 levels and a 48% jump from the lows seen in January 2025. When compared to the 3-year average, current pricing is also 36% higher, highlighting just how strong this rally has been...

49th Executive Conference Highlights Resilience and Future Outlook of Animal Protein Sector 

This year’s Executive Conference held in Las Vegas from May 5–7 for senior leaders in the animal protein sector, was an informative show of the industry’s and what we can expect from the protein sector in the coming years.  

“We feed the ever-growing needs of the entire population,” said Russ Whitman, Expana’s Director of Market Reporting, in his opening remarks. 

Despite challenges related to animal health, regulatory shifts, and geopolitical tensions, the industry has demonstrated remarkable perseverance...

US Foods Achieves Solid Q1 Results with Gains Across Key Segments

US Foods has released its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, highlighting strong performance driven by a focused strategy and the company's ability to manage controllable factors while adapting to broader macroeconomic conditions.

“During the first quarter we outperformed the industry and again delivered strong profitability, with Adjusted EBITDA growing 9% and Adjusted Diluted EPS increasing 26%, despite the challenging operating environment and weather-related headwinds. Our results speak to the strength of our customer value proposition and relentless execution of our strategy,”...

ANALYSIS: EU Broiler Market Update - Price Momentum, Production Growth, and Export Potential

The EU broiler market has shown notable price resilience in recent months, as average prices reached EUR 2.88/kg by the end of April 2025. This marks a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, positioning EU broiler prices ahead of those in other major poultry-producing regions such as Brazil and Thailand.

Brazilian broiler prices remain significantly lower, despite modest gains in recent weeks. Current price levels are at approximately EUR 1.5 /kg, highlighting Brazil's continued cost competitiveness in the global poultry market...

ANALYSIS: Uruguay’s Beef Exports Fall in April Amid US Modest Growth and China's Persistent Downturn

According to the latest data from Uruguay’s National Customs Directorate, fresh beef exports totaled 28,142 metric tons (mt) in April. This corresponds to a 6.5% decline compared to March and a 7.0% drop Y-o-Y, reflecting softer demand from the Chinese market, partially offset by modest growth in other regions.

The US remained Uruguay’s top beef export destination after overtaking China two months ago, expanding its share to 41.7% of total volume shipped during April, or 11,723 mt. This represents a modest 2.6% M-o-M increase but a notable 42.6% gain...

ANALYSIS: Chicken Slaughter: A Look at Q1 and What Lies Ahead

The first quarter of 2025 has extended the poultry industry’s trend of constrained production, with slaughter volumes trailing historical norms due to a mix of operational and biological challenges. January began firmly, with federally inspected chicken slaughter reaching 834.3 million head—slightly above both 2024’s level and the historical maximum for the month. However, this strength was not sustained.

February volumes fell sharply to 736.9 million head, reflecting the combined effects of widespread winter storms and plant downtime which limited live bird transport and reduced line schedules...

The Retail Rundown: Grocers Take on Foodservice for a Slice of Mother’s Day Spending

Grocers are gearing up to win a slice of Mother’s Day sales, which are traditionally dominated by restaurants and dining out. While foodservice still captures the lion’s share of spending, supermarkets are making strategic plays to compete for consumers' dollars.

According to the National Retail Federation, Mother’s Day spending is projected to hit $34.1 billion this year—up from $33.5 billion in 2024 and just shy of the 2023 record of $35.7 billion. About 84% of US adults are expected to celebrate, spending an average of $259.04 on gifts and festivities...

Secretary Rollins Requires States to Provide Records on SNAP Benefits

Today, U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food and Nutrition Service (FNS) will require States to make certain all records associated with Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits and allotments are shared with the federal government.

“President Trump is rightfully requiring the federal government to have access to all programs it funds,” said Secretary Rollins, “and SNAP is no exception. For years, this program has been on autopilot, with no USDA insight into real-time data. The Department is focused on appropriate and lawful participation in SNAP, and today’s request is one of many steps to ensure SNAP is preserved for only those eligible...

ANALYSIS: Chilean Salmon Market and Production Update

In April, the average price for whole fresh Chilean Atlantic farmed salmon 4-5 kg in the United States market ($4.65 lbs. - €9.17 kg) rose by 1.9% month-on-month, amidst a stable whole fish market characterized by adequate supply against moderate demand. Despite the generally stable conditions, the Chilean salmon sector is currently facing instability due to a 10% tariff imposed on its products. This tariff could potentially lower Free on Board (FOB) prices in Chile while increasing consumer prices in the United States, which remains a significant market for Chilean salmon...

ANALYSIS: Mexican Beef Export Trends in Q1 2025

The Mexican beef export market to the US showed mixed trends in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting shifts in trade dynamics. The short period of US tariff imposition on Mexico marked a turning point in market activity, leading some exporters to reduce or suspend shipments while others negotiated agreements to manage the new costs. Exchange rate fluctuations driven by macroeconomic factors initially boosted export incentives but rising domestic demand in Mexico and a stronger peso later shifted the focus to the local market. Feeder cattle exports also saw changes following the November 2024 suspension, with new inspections to monitor cattle health and import viability altering trade flows...

ANALYSIS: Australia’s April 2025 Beef Exports Rebound 18.5% MoM as Cyclone Effects Fade

Australia exported 127,173 metric tons (mt) of beef in April 2025, up 18.5% month-on-month, as shipments rebounded sharply from a weather-disrupted March, according to data from the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF).

Shipments recovered following logistical interruptions caused by Ex-cyclone Alfred, during Australia’s most active tropical cyclone season in two decades. Port closures and road disruptions across Queensland, the country's key processing hub, had weighed heavily...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Harvest Numbers Continue to Fall Below Industry Norms

The 2025 turkey slaughter trajectory is shaping up to be one of the most historically limited starts in recent memory. USDA data shows federally inspected turkey headcounts for January through March averaging just over 14.5 million per month - an 18% drop from the 24-year average and nearly 19% below the 5-year norm. February was especially weak, with only 13.27 million turkeys harvested - the lowest total for that month in over two decades. Notably, each of the first three months of 2025 has tracked below the previous recorded historical low, firmly establishing the year’s limited supply footing...

ANALYSIS: Belly Primal Drives Resurgent Pork Carcass Value in April

According to the Urner Barry by Expana Pork Carcass Cutout Value Report, recent increases in carcass values have mitigated losses incurred since the beginning of April. Currently, weekly carcass values are holding steady at approximately year-over-year levels, exceeding the three-year average by 2.2%. April itself witnessed a modest rebound in overall values following a 3.1% decline during the first two weeks. While this initial drop was significant, it represented a continuation of a gradual downward trend that began in...

ANALYSIS: Squid Market Faces New Crosscurrents Amid Recently Imposed Tariffs

Squid continues its volatile trajectory into 2025, with many of the same challenges persisting and one significant development poised to reshape the broader market landscape.

Supply across most squid species and origins entering the U.S. remains difficult to navigate, a trend that has persisted for some time. Meanwhile, the market continues to show signs of disruption, with sourcing diversification, a long-standing advantage for this wild-caught species, now proving even more critical.

A major turning point came with the introduction of new presidential legislation on April 2, establishing “Liberation Day” tariffs. This policy imposed a blanket 10% tariff on all U.S. imports effective April 5, alongside elevated duties on 57 individual countries...

ANALYSIS: UK Lamb Export Market Update

The latest UK sheep meat export figures released by HM Revenue & Customs show that exports for February 2025 are 3.9% lower y-o-y at 6,165 tonnes. The cumulative January to February 2025 sheep meat exports are 2.2% lower than the same period in 2024.

In February, the top three export locations (France, Germany, Belgium) represent the majority of the decline, while the Netherlands had a 79% y-o-y increase. Despite export quantities declining in the first two months of February, export value is up and shows that there is good demand even with higher prices. Market participants reported last week that lamb exports have supported trade volumes and that prices from the Rungis market have held steady during April...

PODCAST: Agri-Food for Thought Ep 28 - M&A in the Global Agri-Food Industry, April 2025 Overview

Expana presents Agri-Food for Thought, the podcast series for agriculture and food professionals.

M&A in the global agri-food industry is an ongoing and very regular trend. Although many companies are hitting the brakes on M&A as they face tariffs and market uncertainty, hundreds of deals continue to take place each month.

On today's episode of Agri-Food for Thought, we showcase selected mergers and acquisitions in the agri-food sector that took place in April 2025.

Retail Program Engages Consumers, Differentiates US Pork Quality in Colombia

As competition intensifies in the region, USMEF ramps up a retail tasting program designed to differentiate U.S. pork and increase consumer trial.

A USMEF program for U.S. pork is generating growing interest among Colombian retailers, having expanded to 18 retail outlets of two supermarket chains in five major markets ‒ Medellin, Bogota, Cartagena, Cali and Barranquilla.

USMEF’s tasting program is an integrated initiative that helps retailers improve inventory management and merchandising techniques while providing critical information to consumers about handling and defrosting frozen U.S. pork. Overall, the tasting program drives home...

ANALYSIS: Cage-Free Market Strains Under Retail Price Pressure

Cage-free egg values continue to slide, diverging from the recent strength in negotiated values seen in the conventional market. Demand remains subdued nationwide, especially along the West Coast, where mandatory cage-free states like California, Oregon, and Washington are experiencing limited consumer interest amid elevated shelf prices.

With prices hovering at $5.50/dozen or higher among most retail chains out West, many consumers appear unwilling to pay up. While a few membership-club type stores offer more competitive pricing, their limited accessibility means most consumers don’t benefit. As a result, most retailers are ordering more conservatively, reducing the need to replenish inventory. This has led to a buildup in available offerings and added downward pressure to the market...

ANALYSIS: US Ribeyes & Tenderloins, Easter 2024 vs 2025

Using Circana retail scanner data, we analyzed total ribeye and tenderloin sales during the week leading up to Easter and Easter week itself to compare buying activity in 2024 (the Catholic Easter) and 2025 (the combined Orthodox and Catholic Easter). Both cuts posted strong year-over-year growth: ribeye sales rose 16%, increasing from roughly $579 million in 2024 to $670 million in 2025, while tenderloin sales climbed 17%, from $126 million to $147 million.

In 2025, the alignment of Orthodox and Catholic Easter on the same date created a more concentrated holiday demand window, likely boosting promotional activity and driving more focused consumer engagement. As a result, many shoppers consolidated purchases into a single peak buying period, contributing to the notable increase in total sales for both items...

Valeo Foods Acquires Italian Baker Freddi Dolciaria

Europe’s sweet snacks producer with footholds in the EU, UK, and Ireland has again expanded across Europe into Italy with the acquisition of Italian sweet baked goods producer, Freddi Dolciaria. A price of sale was not disclosed in the press release.

Currently, Valeo Foods has many recognized brands across Europe like Rowse honey, Jacob’s biscuits, Batchelor’s canned beans and peas, as well as Kettle crisps. Valeo will add Freddi Dolciaria brands like the bakery’s Swiss Roll products that contain ingredients like whole milk, Italian eggs, cocoa cream, chocolate flakes...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #7

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

Click to read "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #7."

This report allows the Expana community to see where key commodity markets stand as of this past week... Click the above PDF report, or keep scrolling to read in plain text...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Shortage Deepens: March Stocks Drop Below 2022 Levels

The total volume of turkey in cold storage has fallen below 2022 to reach a new all-time low in March. Since October 2024, there has been an ongoing trend of year-over-year (YoY) declines in the total amount of frozen turkey. This is largely attributed to low production figures and a relatively high number of disease-related issues. The total number of turkeys processed has been at an all-time low since November 2024, and this year's year-to-date (YTD) HPAI detections are at the second-highest value on record. Additionally, market discussions have suggested that avian metapneumovirus has been responsible for substantial increases in mortality...

ANALYSIS: March Chicken Inventory Trends Reflect Shifting Domestic and Export Dynamics

Cold storage inventories of chicken continue to diverge from 2023 levels, with March values up 3.1% year-over-year (YoY). Although there was a month-over-month (MoM) decrease from February to March, it was less significant than the typical five-year average decline. This overall trend was largely driven by the breast and breast meat category, which alone accounted for 32% of total chicken supplies in cold storage. Frozen holdings of breasts and breast meat were up 13.7% YoY and declined just 0.6% MoM—far less than the five-year average decrease of 4.2%.

This is particularly notable given the difficulty many domestic buyers faced in uncovering both...

ANALYSIS: US Egg Market Defies Seasonal Trends with Post-Easter Stability

The US egg market is showing surprising resilience in the wake of Easter, holding firm at price levels that are typically subject to sharp seasonal declines. Midwest large has remained unchanged at $3.77 per dozen for three consecutive weeks—a stark contrast to the five-year average, which shows April prices falling by roughly 30% during the same period. While there were signs of mounting pressure in the lead-up to the holiday, the market has since stabilized, buoyed by a modest improvement in retail demand and continued strength in cross-border movement to Canada...