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Rabobank: Poultry Quarterly Q1 2020

The outlook for global poultry in 2020 is slightly more positive than it was in 2019, when markets suffered from relative oversupply. A key driver of the gradual recovery will be ongoing strength in trade flows to Asia in order to supply African swine fever-affected markets such as China, Vietnam, South Korea, and the Philippines. These trade flows will be positive for dark-meat prices, though they will be subject to increasing volatility. Improved beef prices (the main substitute for fresh poultry), stable global average feed prices, and more balanced supply will also all support the gradual recovery. The downside is that global whole-bird and breast-meat markets will remain pressured and have limited price upside.

African swine fever (ASF) will increasingly push chicken expansion in Asia in 2020. This will help fill the gap in local protein markets affected by ASF, but it also...

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